The weather thread

[Exiled Bear]

(25-06-2013, 10:01 PM)Paul Wrote: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23032890

A step in the right direction but I fear that it may be too little too late - we are still suffering from the Bush/Gore scandal sadly.

[Paul]

Yes 14 years too late, but still a step in the right direction.

[Paul]

Yes 14 years too late, but still a step in the right direction.

[DaveC]

(26-06-2013, 12:07 PM)Paul Wrote: Yes 14 years too late, but still a step in the right direction.

Obama, the BBC and Paul in agreement.

Hmmmm......... :fishing:

[Leicester Exile]

One assumes any climate change in C21st is man made. What did Noah do to cause enough floods to make it necessary to build an ark?
The extreme heat of 2004 or 2005 resulted in the hottest day for "400 years" so the BBC said. Bows and arrows were to blame back then!!

[Paul]

(26-06-2013, 01:08 PM)DaveC Wrote:

(26-06-2013, 12:07 PM)Paul Wrote: Yes 14 years too late, but still a step in the right direction.

Obama, the BBC and Paul in agreement.

Hmmmm......... :fishing:

Where have you been Dave! I take it you are a sceptic when it comes climate change LE. Many people are including me up until a couple of years ago then I started researching it and changed my mind.

I thought the Old Testament was mostly fiction. Do many of us still believe in Adam and Eve, Noah etc.

[Leicester Exile]

It's just that the climate has been changing since time began especially when talking about very short periods of time - like 50 years or even 100 years. As for the UK I remember severe floods in the 1950s and the occasional long hot summers. I'm all for not wasting resources i.e. recycle where possible and I accept it is a good idea to avoid air pollution for our own health but I do not accept it affects the world wide weather.
A bigger threat to the world's climate is the destruction of rain forests especially in South America. I can still remember being taught just how important it is to the world's climate.

[Paul]

Yes agree about the rainforests. I think what you can look at are facts as Kim will tell you.

The global temperature has risen in the last 50 years. The ice has been melting at a much faster rate in the polar regions. These are 2 facts, even if you don't agree we are getting more floods, more heat waves etc. then we need to ask ourselves why this is happening.

[Leicester Exile]

The point I am making is that changes over a 50 year period has always been the case. It is nothing new. And 50 years is really a minicule period over the history of the planet

[GrizzlyBear]

I believe the scientific community are agreed that the rate of change in the mean global temperature in the last 50 years has been faster than at any time in history (and they have an impressively long history thanks to ice cores, dendrochronology, geological samples, etc). No one is sure what is going on but it seems to me that:

It is possible that some of the warming is due to an underlying cycle.
It is probable that carbon emissions are accentuating that.
It is probable that this unprecedented warming will cause climate change.
It is possible that such change will not be for the better.

Some people will say, sod it let's just carry on and see what happens. Personally, with that level of uncertainty, I would like to do what we can to avoid finding out whether we are permanently messing up the planet or not.

I am not an optimist that the Obama/BBC/Paul axis will win the day. I think we are screwed.

[Exiled Bear]

How anyone can dispute the existence of human-induced climate change is quite simply beyond me. The facts are irrefutable. See this graph:



CO2 levels are higher than they have been for the past 650,000 years, and not just a little bit higher, that's a massive increase on any previous highs. The warming effects of CO2 were proven in the mid 1800s, so how can it be that increased levels of CO2 such as these will have no effect on global climate?

A few facts:

• Global sea levels rose about 17 centimetres in the last century. The rate in the last decade is nearly double that of the last century.
  
• The 20 warmest years since 1880 have occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years.
  
• Many other theories as to why our climate may be changing the way it is have been put forward and they have all been proved wrong
  

I suggest you do some research online for yourself LE, it could be a real eye opener for you. The Met Office website is a good place to start.

[Paul]

Yes I think unless you have really looked into it like yourself then you are sceptical about it.

[Paul]

(26-06-2013, 08:46 PM)GrizzlyBear Wrote: I believe the scientific community are agreed that the rate of change in the mean global temperature in the last 50 years has been faster than at any time in history (and they have an impressively long history thanks to ice cores, dendrochronology, geological samples, etc). No one is sure what is going on but it seems to me that:

It is possible that some of the warming is due to an underlying cycle.
It is probable that carbon emissions are accentuating that.
It is probable that this unprecedented warming will cause climate change.
It is possible that such change will not be for the better.

Some people will say, sod it let's just carry on and see what happens. Personally, with that level of uncertainty, I would like to do what we can to avoid finding out whether we are permanently messing up the planet or not.

I am not an optimist that the Obama/BBC/Paul axis will win the day. I think we are screwed.

yes I do think we are screwed too Grizzly.

[Paul]

Any sceptics of global warming and the causes and the dangers of it read this. It's unequivocal.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24292615

800 scientists have worked on this for a number of years. They are 95% certain that climate change is man made. Water temperaturs have been rising over the last 60 years and that is causing sea levels to rise significantly and without a huge reduction in greenhouse gases water levels will rise by up to 80 cm by the end of the century which will wipe out a lot of our land.

There's loads more in the report that is the most frightening bit.

[Leicester Exile]

So of the last 60 years 45 have seen global warming and must be taken seriously. The other 15 years where there wasn't global warming these same scientists say should be ignored Are they also saying they feel they are 95% certain they are right choosing to ignore the other 5%
That smacks of making stats prove anything you want it to. Over millions of years scientists have "proved" the climate has changed many times. 60 years is really like a drop in the ocean in the earth's existence, likewise the UK is a pinprick on the earth's surface.

As you can see I remain a sceptic.

[Paul]

I think you need to look at the whole report, when you get so many experts together and they come up with such a detailed report then to just dismiss it like that is wrong.

It's not us that will suffer the consequences it's our children. The uk is planning to cut our co2 emissions by 80% by 2050. So govts are taking it very seriously.

Food supplies are another thing that will be effected.

[Leicester Exile]

I remember in the 1960s believing many experts who came together to say smoking cigarettes would do you no harm. And the many experts saying butter was harmful and other experts who said it was good for you!!

[Paul]

Hardly relevant comparisons though are they and did these experts have connections with the tobacco companies.

[Leicester Exile]

Of course. But are you sure all these current experts are absolutely genuine. Green causes are money makers too.
Paul we will have to agree to disagree. Unfortunately I doubt i will be able to say in 2050 "told you so"!!!

[GrizzlyBear]

I remember reading an essay by Bertrand Russell, who was of course no slouch when it came to rational discourse and would probably have backed himself to win any logical argument. Nevertheless, his point was that you can come to a stage in a discussion where one side is just wrong and to continue the argument is simply a waste of breath. Sorry LE but, with respect, that's where we are with global warming. It's happening; we are contributing to it. End of.